Specific Challenge:

In the Energy Union Strategy, Energy Efficiency was recognised as a resource in its own right which should be enabled to compete on equal terms with generation capacity and to have primary consideration across all policies^[1]. However, the structure of energy demand as well as the real value beyond the fuel's cost and the (energy and non-energy) impacts of energy efficiency are still not well understood with the effect that benefits of energy efficiency are not sufficiently taken into account in financial and political decision making, and planning, while prices of fossil fuels remain relatively low.

Scope:

2019: Substantiate the demand side aspects in energy modelling

The aim of the action is to deepen the demand side-related parameters in existing models and to include new aspects and data sources (e.g. by tapping DSOs modelling for forecasting of distributed loads). In general, it is to be expected that the introduction of smart meters and smart equipment will lead to more accurate consumption data providing for a more holistic mapping of the demand side and thus for better projections inside energy policy development and a more effective regulatory framework.

The action should complement the existing demand side energy models by developing multiple-agent energy models and/or modelling segments and/or developing methodologies on how to improve and enhance the demand side aspects in modelling.

These models and/or methodologies should:

• be compatible with the energy models most commonly used at European level;
• model more accurately those aspects not yet sufficiently considered in the existing models;
• make use of new data sources, including big data as for example generated by smart meters, smart buildings and smart equipment;
• identify and refine the structure and patterns of demand and how it will develop;
• contribute to an enhanced demand-side model to be consistently used at European level.

Expected Impact:

2019:

Proposals are expected to demonstrate the impacts listed below, using quantified indicators and targets wherever possible

• More accurate and holistic mapping and modelling of the demand side and to a better assessment of energy consumption trends for different categories of economic agents.
• More accurate follow-up of energy efficiency measures implemented at the demand side;
• Better assessment of demand-side policy needs at European level.